The Rule of Two

Feb 19 2021

There are several rules of nature that govern (my) life, from what I have observed. Some are fairly normal ones, for example, I do believe that the First Rule of Success is that there is a certain power in believing whether something will come true or not, that does affect whether said thing actually comes true, as long as I've done my best to make it come true anyway. Put another way, if I try my best but don't really believe that it will succeed anyway, it has a larger chance of failing.

Others are odder, for example, the Worry Rule states that the more I worry about a bad outcome of something that is up in the air, and the more stress that I get from it, the lower the chance that that bad end will actually happen. This then turns stress into a planning exercise for contingencies for the worst-case scenarios, and the act of believing that stressing over the worst-case scenarios leads to them not happening also feeds in to the first rule of success. This might all sound like hocus-pocus, but I believe they each up the chance of success of an event by up to about 10% each for me, and having the correct positive mindset does definitely passively affect many small things around me.

But not all rules are necessarily things that affect success chance. One thing I've noticed with several of my life events that I have aimed for, is that there is a certain Rule of Two thing going on. The first time I try for, apply for, or aim for something, it often seems to fail, sometimes spectacularly. Yet if I try again for a second time, it will work out in a better way than if it had succeeded the first time. In a way it's very similar to a "one door closes, another door opens" philosophy, or "if I fail, try, try again", with a dash of fate thrown in (I trust fate to lead me down the right path, in general) and a mental note that I might occasionally want to be really wary when something actually does succeed the first time, because maybe if I let it go and try to catch it again, the second time will be even better.

But you didn't come to this blog for self-help tips. Why was all this important to write? This is because of the events that have happened in the last month and a bit, after my last blog post. The Rule of Two has been out in force since then, and has helped me clear up a few things. Let me show you what I mean!

The date set by my University to declare my initial choice and make my application was Jan 27 2021. While I had been doing research and mulling my choices for a long time, I formally opened an application on Jan 17th. I had to list my top 3 choices, and at the time I actually listed Waseda, Sophia, and Hokkaido in that order, with a note that Waseda and Sophia were basically neck to neck (choice 1A and 1B) and I couldn't choose between them, and wondering if any other student had already applied to one of the two so that I could pick the other one, or if they had any more recent Student Feedback forms (apparently the office didn't, though). In the end, despite a number of misgivings about housing and the course lottery system, I only listed Waseda over Sophia due to one reason, and that was the LGBTQ Support Guide on their website, and thus the indication that they would be perhaps more minority-friendly. I still made clear they were basically both top choices for me though.

Then this horrifying email came in from the University of Alberta International (UAI)'s Exchange Coordinator:

Sorry, Your Application was Not Approved (Mon, Jan 18 2021, 8:53 am)

Wait, what?

Firstly, the reason my GPA shows as 2.1 is because I had done really badly in my first stint at the University under the Faculty of Science, from 2002-2005. It's 2021 now. That's basically punishing a fresh University student for their kindergarten grades. Besides that, I'd transferred out and back in since then and everything from before's been recalculated as transfer credit, not GPA.

(Interesting sidenote: I had floated the idea of going abroad for Fall 2020-Winter 2021, but I could not due to a technicality -- instead of re-enrolling right into my new Faculty, the Faculty of Arts, in 2019, I had enrolled into Open Studies because I thought -- wrongly, but no one I consulted saw fit to tell me otherwise -- that all students returning from a Required To Withdraw (RTW) had to go through Open Studies like those in the University's Fresh Start Program. But I was not in that program, so I could have enrolled directly using my NAIT grades or just the sheer length of time off. Open Studies only allows students to be part time (maximum of two courses), whereas being a full-time student in the semester prior to going abroad is a requirement for the semester/year-long Study Abroad program. So this meant that I did not meet the eligibility for going abroad in 2020-2021. I looked into taking a course from another college as my 3rd course, but UAI wouldn't allow that to count either. This was frustrating at the time, but also a blessing in disguise since COVID-19 then hit in March 2020 and all exchange programs were cancelled. See the Rule of Two above!)

And secondly, I've been in touch with that Exchange Coordinator, and UAI's office in general, since April of 2019, and had shown them my transcripts a couple times and asked if it was okay because I have a complex transcript. Would my earlier grades be counted against me? I've always been told the answer was no, only the grades since my re-enrolment would count. We had also exchanged many emails since November because I had actually put in a half-complete, tentative application for Sophia before I had done any of the research, and he had been helping me with parts of the process knowing full well I was considering at least Sophia. Why wouldn't you have told me about this requirement a little earlier than 10 days before the deadline?

Anyway, this was due to the term "cumulative GPA" in the application, which apparently not only differs from "GPA" in general but also differs from the U of A's/Faculty of Arts' official definition of GPA, which only counts the courses from my re-enrollment onwards. I reached out to him in a panic, and proposed a solution -- it seemed that this was partially based on assumptions of what Waseda and Sophia mean, so would he allow me to reach out to the schools directly with my transcript and ask them if I had a chance? He accepted, except that it had to be done through him and not from me. I drafted the email though, and sent it to (only) Sophia and Waseda through him. These were my emails, and the subsequent replies from the two Universities:

Waseda Letter (Mon, Jan 18 2021, 10:57 AM) / Sophia Letter (Mon, Jan 18 2021, 10:59 AM)
Sophia Reply #1 (Mon, Jan 18 2021, 4:21 PM)
My Reply to Sophia #1 (Mon, Jan 18 2021, 4:25 PM)
Sophia Reply #2 (Mon, Jan 18 2021, 5:37 PM)

Waseda Reply (Wed, Jan 20 2021, 2:46 AM)

Now, again, even though I sent Waseda the letter first (by 2 minutes), and I had listed Waseda over Sophia in the first initial page of the application that got rejected, the two schools were still both #1 to me and the letter was both drafted by me and sent out by my UAI coordinator a mere two hours after the first rejection email.

I was still waffling hard, as there were aspects of Waseda's offering that didn't feel right (housing, lottery system, lack of student feedback), whereas Sophia's offering was nearly perfect but had a smaller number of class (Waseda has those specialized Japanese classes! ..that exchange students don't really seem to have room to take anyway :( ) and club choices overall due to being a smaller school. This series of exchanges above though both far and away cemented Sophia as my #1 choice, as well as permanently put Waseda out of my top 3 choices entirely. Not only did Sophia reply more positively, giving me a feeling that they wanted me (how nice!), and showing flexibility and not sticking to a "by the book" reply that made absolutely no logical sense, but they also did it right away (4:20 pm in Edmonton is 8:20 am in Japan) and not one and a half days later.

Once Sophia's replies came in, I told my coordinator that I had finally settled for one school over the other and would start up the quest to get those letters. Even though Waseda's reply hadn't arrived yet, and I would still wait respectfully for that before officially re-starting my application with Sophia as my #1, Sophia's efficiency and reason was so on point that Waseda basically stood no chance unless they gave me an unconditional yes, which even then might not have made them my #1.

Around this time, something I had read a few days prior on Reddit about how the Study Abroad experience should be focused on language and immersion more so than the English language classes, also started to sink in hard. I was lucky, then, that my Waseda app hadn't been locked in, because Sophia's intensive Japanese program (16.5h/week) beats out Waseda's (10.5h/week) quite significantly. I realized that while the Waseda package had one or two really strong positive factors, it also had one or two really strong negative factors, and they were things that I couldn't really afford to worry about as an exchange student. Both my heart and the drama had aligned to point toward Sophia as the right path by the afternoon of Jan 18, and I set forth down this road.

By the by, although the first couple hours of that day consisted of stress that I didn't need to have, I think this actually saved my application as well, because if I had not known about this issue and UAI had blindly submitted my application to Sophia without the supporting letters, my application would certainly have had been rejected. I also obtained two letters, one from my coordinator (which I helped write, since it just needed to be an explanation of the U of A's system on official paperhead), and one from my faculty (because I had emailed them about a different issue and asked about this at the same time.) The two letters are listed here:

UAI Letter
Faculty Letter

So anyway, that was an interesting sidetrack that caused me a severe amount of stress for a couple days, but saved me a potential heartbreak later on. After respectfully waiting for Waseda's reply, I formally changed my top 3 choices to Sophia, Hokkaido, and then Chiba. Over the next few weeks, I received these emails:

Education Abroad Application Eligibility Confirmed (Thu, Jan 21 2021, 2:41 PM)
Application For Sophia University - Exchange Submitted (Tue, Jan 26 2021, 1:37 PM)
Update re: status of your exchange application (Thu, Jan 28, 2021, 2:27 PM)
University of Alberta - Education Abroad Program Sophia University - ExchangeExchange Application Approved (Fri, Feb 05, 2021, 9:11 AM)

Yes, that title says ExchangeExchange.

Your nomination for exchange! (Fri, Feb 05, 2021, 9:19 AM)
Sophia University- Exchange Program Online Application Information for JESSICA TAN - University of Alberta (Fri, Feb 05 2021, 9:39 AM)

(There are many other emails, especially my award application ones, that I am not showing here. Those are the important ones, timeline-wise. And yes, that last Sophia email actually says "You are nominated to our exchange program at Sophia University in ." without anything between the in and the .)

Success! Now, this is me passing only the first of 3 possible failure points, which was a rejection from my home University. Sophia could still very well reject me, and even if they accept, the pandemic or other politics could get in the way (the Japan Summer Olympics are still up in the air, for example, and that could bring chaos) of either Canada or Japan permitting international travel. And if everything is online, I likely won't do the exchange anyway because I'd rather my exchange year be an in-person experience, since I would have to sacrifice my current full-time job for it, plus our time zones are too far apart for online classes to be reasonably feasible.

There was also a line in the emails above that made me furrow my brows a bit, and that's in the Update re: status email, where it goes:

To complicate matters further, you have applied to exchanges that are oversubscribed so I might not be able to send you to your first choice exchange school. Please start considering an exchange at the second or third choice options you've listed in your Horizons applications. 

I'm not sure if this is a form letter that everyone gets, or if there is a different form letter that you get if you were the only applicant to a certain school. But this made me worry for that entire week and a half between that email and the acceptance ones, because I had already tried to deal with this issue earlier (and was told not to worry whether other students were applying or not, and to just continue my application!), but also because the reference letters that I had already secured, and the effort I had put in for them, were pointed toward Sophia and the reply that they gave me. What would it mean if i suddenly had to apply to another school instead? How would that even work? Thankfully I never had to find out. Nor do I know if I bumped someone else off to their secondary spot, in which case I'd have felt some guilt since I'm this old already.

Anyway, the Rule of Two came into play here because my first application (Waseda with Sophia as the 1A option) was rejected, but this turned out to be a good thing in the end and probably actually saved my application. It was also the second time I had applied to Sophia, counting the first time back in November before I had done any research, but I withdrew that one myself to write blog entries instead.

In addition, while I am going to make a follow-up post soon cataloguing the application documents, the Rule of Two also reared its head right after this, as one of the items that Sophia requires is a reference letter from a professor, lecturer, or instructor at my host institution, and.. my first choice for this letter (my most recent Japanese instructor) actually rejected my request. This initially left a really bad taste in my mouth -- what sort of Japanese instructor tries to hamstring you from going to Japan to learn Japanese better? Did I really need this additional stress inflicted upon me? My second choice accepted though, and perhaps this was a better choice in the long run, though this is still playing out in real time.